the path of empire-第12部分

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　attention　of　the　whole　world　was　arrested。　The　innumerable　and　intimate　bonds　of　friendship　and　interest　which　would　thus　have　to　be　broken　merely　because　of　an　insignificant　jog　in　a　boundary　remote　from　both　the　nations　made　war　between　the　United　States　and　Great　Britain　seem　absolutely　inconceivable；　until　people　realized　that　neither　country　could　yield　without　an　admission　of　defeat　both　galling　to　national　pride　and　involving　fundamental　principles　of　conduct　and　policy　for　the　future。

Great　Britain　in　particular　stood　amazed　at　Cleveland's　position。　The　general　opinion　was　that　peace　must　be　maintained　and　that　diplomats　must　find　a　formula　which　would　save　both　peace　and　appearances。　Yet　before　this　public　opinion　could　be　diplomatically　formulated；　a　new　episode　shook　the　British　sense　of　security。　Germany　again　appeared　as　a　menace　and；　as　in　the　case　of　Samoa；　the　international　situation　thus　produced　tended　to　develop　a　realization　of　the　kinship　between　Great　Britain　and　the　United　States。　Early　in　January；　1896；　the　Jameson　raid　into　the　Transvaal　was　defeated；　and　the　Kaiser　immediately　telegraphed　his　congratulations　to　President　Krtiger。　In　view　of　the　possibilities　involved　in　this　South　African　situation；　British　public　opinion　demanded　that　her　diplomats　maintain　peace　with　the　United　States；　with　or　without　the　desired　formula。

The　British　Government；　however；　was　not　inclined　to　act　with　undue　haste。　It　became　apparent　even　to　the　most　panicky　that　war　with　the　United　States　could　not　come　immediately；　for　the　American　Commission　of　Inquiry　must　first　report。　For　a　time　Lord　Salisbury　hoped　that　Congress　would　not　support　the　Presidenta　contingency　which　not　infrequently　happened　under　Cleveland's　Administration。　On　this　question　of　foreign　relations；　however；　Congress　stood　squarely　behind　the　President。　Lord　Salisbury　then　toyed　with　the　hope　that　the　matter　might　be　delayed　until　Cleveland's　term　expired；　in　the　hope　he　might　have　an　opportunity　of　dealing　with　a　less　strenuous　successor。

In　the　summer　of　1896；　John　Hay；　an　intimate　friend　of　Major　McKinley；　the　probable　Republican　candidate　for　the　presidency；　was　in　England；　where　he　was　a　well…known　figure。　There　he　met　privately　Arthur　J。　Balfour；　representing　Lord　Salisbury；　and　Sir　William　Harcourt；　the　leader　of　the　Opposition。　Hay　convinced　them　that　a　change　in　the　Administration　of　his　country　would　involve　no　retreat　from　the　existing　American　position。　The　British　Government　thereupon　determined　to　yield　but　attempted　to　cover　its　retreat　by　merging　the　question　with　one　of　general　arbitration。　This　proposal；　however；　was　rejected；　and　Lord　Salisbury　then　agreed　to　〃an　equitable　settlement〃　of　the　Venezuela　question　by　empowering　the　British　Ambassador　at　Washington　to　begin　negotiations　〃either　with　the　representative　of　Venezuela　or　with　the　Government　of　the　United　States　acting　as　the　friend　of　Venezuela。〃

The　achievement　of　the　Administration　consisted　in　forcing　Great　Britain　to　recognize　the　interest　of　the　United　States　in　the　dispute　with　Venezuela；　on　the　ground　that　Venezuela　was　one　of　the　nations　of　the　Western　Hemisphere。　This　concession　practically　involved　recognition　of　the　interest　of　the　United　States　in　case　of　future　disputes　with　other　American　powers。　The　arbitration　treaty　thus　arranged　between　Great　Britain　and　Venezuela　under　the　auspices　of　the　United　States　submitted　the　whole　disputed　area　to　judicial　decision　but　adopted　the　rule　that　fifty　years　of　occupation　should　give　a　sufficient　title　for　possession。　The　arbitration　tribunal；　which　met　in　Paris　in　1899；　decided　on　a　division　of　the　disputed　territory　but　found　that　the　claim　of　Great　Britain　was；　on　the　whole；　more　nearly　correct　than　that　of　Venezuela。

Cleveland's　startling　and　unconventional　method　of　dealing　with　this　controversy　has　been　explained　by　all　kinds　of　conjectures。　For　example；　it　has　been　charged　that　his　message　was　the　product　of　a　fishing　trip　on　which　whisky　flowed　too　freely；　on　the　other　hand；　it　has　been　asserted　that　the　message　was　an　astute　political　play　for　the　thunder　of　patriotic　applause。　More　seriously；　Cleveland　has　been　charged　by　one　set　of　critics　with　bluffing；　and　by　another　with　recklessly　running　the　risk　of　war　on　a　trivial　provocation。　The　charge　of　bluffing　comes　nearer　the　fact；　for　President　Cleveland　probably　had　never　a　moment's　doubt　that　the　forces　making　for　peace　between　the　two　nations　would　be　victorious。　If　he　may　be　said　to　have　thrown　a　bomb；　he　certainly　had　attached　a　safety　valve　to　it；　for　the　investigation　which　he　proposed　could　not　but　give　time　for　the　passions　produced　by　his　message　to　cool。　It　is　interesting　to　note　in　passing　that　delay　for　investigation　was　a　device　which　that　other　great　Democrat；　William　Jennings　Bryan；　Cleveland's　greatest　political　enemy；　sought；　during　his　short　term　as　Secretary　of　State　under　President　Wilson；　to　make　universal　in　a　series　of　arbitration　treatiestreaties　which　now　bind　the　United　States　and　many　other　countries；　how　tightly　no　man　can　tell。

While；　however；　Cleveland's　action　was　based　rather　on　a　belief　in　peace　than　on　an　expectation　of　war；　it　cannot　be　dismissed　as　merely　a　bluff。　Not　only　was　he　convinced　that　the　principle　involved　was　worth　establishing　whatever　the　cost　might　be；　but　he　was　certain　that　the　method　he　employed　was　the　only　one　which　could　succeed；　for　in　no　other　way　was　it　possible　to　wake　England　to　a　realization　of　the　fact　that　the　United　States　was　full…grown　and　imbued　with　a　new　consciousness　of　its　strength。　So　far　was　Cleveland's　message　from　provoking　war　that　it　caused　the　people　of　Great　Britain　vitally　to　realize　for　the　first　time　the　importance　of　friendship　with　the　United　States。　It　marks　a　change　in　their　attitude　toward　things　American　which　found　expression　not　only　in　diplomacy；　but　in　various　other　ways；　and　which　strikingly　revealed　itself　in　the　international　politics　of　the　next　few　years。　Not　that　hostility　was　converted　into　affection；　but　a　former　condescension　gave　way　to　an　appreciative　friendliness　towards　the　people　of　the　United　States。

The　reaction　in　America　was　somewhat　different。　Cleveland　had　united　the　country　upon　a　matter　of　foreign　policy；　not　completely；　it　is　true；　but　to　a　greater　degree　than　Blaine　had　ever　succeeded　in　doing。　More　important　than　this　unity　of　feeling　throughout　the　land；　however；　was　the　development　of　a　spirit　of　inquiry　among　the　people。　Suddenly　confronted　by　changes　of　policy　that　might　bring　wealth　or　poverty；　life　or　death；　the　American　people　began　to　take　the　foreign　relations　of　the　United　States　more　seriously　than　they　had　since　the　days　of　the　Napoleonic　wars。　Yet　it　is　not　surprising　that　when　the　Venezuela　difficulty　had　been　settled　and　Secretary　Olney　and　Sir　Julian　Pauncefote；　the　British　Ambassador；　had　concluded　a　general　treaty　of　arbitration；　the　Senate　should　have　rejected　it；　for　the　lesson　that　caution　was　necessary　in　international　affairs　had　been　driven　home。　Time　was　needed　for　the　new　generation　to　formulate　its　foreign　policy。



CHAPTER　VII。　The　Outbreak　Of　The　War　With　Spain

Before　the　nineteenth　century　ended；　the　Samoan；　Hawaiian；　and　Venezuelan　episodes　had　done　much　to　quicken　a　national　consciousness　in　the　people　of　the　United　States　and　at　the　same　time　to　break　down　their　sense　of　isolation　from　the　rest　of　the　world。　Commerce　and　trade　were　also　important　factors　in　overcoming　this　traditional　isolation。　Not　only　was　American　trade　growing；　but　it　was　changing　in　character。　Argentina　was　beginning　to　compete　with　the　United　States　in　exporting　wheat　and　meat；　while　American　manufacturers　were　reaching　the　point　where　they　were　anxious　for　foreign　markets　in　which　they　felt　they　could　compete　with　the　products　of　Great　Britain　and　Germany。

In　a　thousand　ways　and　without　any　loss　of　vigor　the　sense　of　American　nationality　was　expressing　itself。　The　study　of　American　history　was　introduced　into　the　lower　schools；　and　a　new　group　of　historians　began　scientifically　to　investigate　whence　the　American　people　had　come　and　what　they　really　were。　In　England；　such　popular　movements　find　instant　expression　in　literature；　in　the　United　States　they　take　the　form　of　societies。　Innumerable　patriotic　organizations　such　as　the　〃Daughters　of　the　American　Revolution〃　and　a　host　of　others；　sought　to　trace　out　American　genealogy　and　to　perpetuate　the　memory　of　American　military　and　naval　achievements。　Respect　for　the　American　flag　was　taught　in　schools；　and　the　question　was　debated　as　to　whether　its　use　in　comic　opera　indicated　respect　or　insult。　This　new　nationalism　was　unlike　the　expansionist　movement　of　the　fifties　in　that　it　laid　no　particular　stress　upon　the　incorporation　of　the　neighboring　republics　by　a　process　of　federation。　On　the　whole；　the　people　had　lost　their　faith　in　the　assimilating　influence　of　republican　institutions　and　did　not　desire　to　annex　alien　territory　and　races。　They　were　now　more　concerned　with　the　consolidation　of　their　own　country　and　with　its　place　in　the　world。　Nor　were　they　as　neglectful　as　their　fathers　had　been　of　the　material　means　by　which　to　accomplish　their　somewhat　indefinite　purposes