the prince-第22部分

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y；　because　that　deliverance　is　of　no　avail　which　does　not　depend　upon　yourself；　those　only　are　reliable；　certain；　and　durable　that　depend　on　yourself　and　your　valour。



CHAPTER　XXV

WHAT　FORTUNE　CAN　EFFECT　IN　HUMAN　AFFAIRS　AND　HOW　TO　WITHSTAND　HER

It　is　not　unknown　to　me　how　many　men　have　had；　and　still　have；　the　opinion　that　the　affairs　of　the　world　are　in　such　wise　governed　by　fortune　and　by　God　that　men　with　their　wisdom　cannot　direct　them　and　that　no　one　can　even　help　them；　and　because　of　this　they　would　have　us　believe　that　it　is　not　necessary　to　labour　much　in　affairs；　but　to　let　chance　govern　them。　This　opinion　has　been　more　credited　in　our　times　because　of　the　great　changes　in　affairs　which　have　been　seen；　and　may　still　be　seen；　every　day；　beyond　all　human　conjecture。　Sometimes　pondering　over　this；　I　am　in　some　degree　inclined　to　their　opinion。　Nevertheless；　not　to　extinguish　our　free　will；　I　hold　it　to　be　true　that　Fortune　is　the　arbiter　of　one…half　of　our　actions；＇*＇　but　that　she　still　leaves　us　to　direct　the　other　half；　or　perhaps　a　little　less。

＇*＇　Frederick　the　Great　was　accustomed　to　say：　〃The　older　one　gets　the　　　　　more　convinced　one　becomes　that　his　Majesty　King　Chance　does　　　　　three…quarters　of　the　business　of　this　miserable　universe。〃　　　　　Sorel's　〃Eastern　Question。〃

I　compare　her　to　one　of　those　raging　rivers；　which　when　in　flood　overflows　the　plains；　sweeping　away　trees　and　buildings；　bearing　away　the　soil　from　place　to　place；　everything　flies　before　it；　all　yield　to　its　violence；　without　being　able　in　any　way　to　withstand　it；　and　yet；　though　its　nature　be　such；　it　does　not　follow　therefore　that　men；　when　the　weather　becomes　fair；　shall　not　make　provision；　both　with　defences　and　barriers；　in　such　a　manner　that；　rising　again；　the　waters　may　pass　away　by　canal；　and　their　force　be　neither　so　unrestrained　nor　so　dangerous。　So　it　happens　with　fortune；　who　shows　her　power　where　valour　has　not　prepared　to　resist　her；　and　thither　she　turns　her　forces　where　she　knows　that　barriers　and　defences　have　not　been　raised　to　constrain　her。

And　if　you　will　consider　Italy；　which　is　the　seat　of　these　changes；　and　which　has　given　to　them　their　impulse；　you　will　see　it　to　be　an　open　country　without　barriers　and　without　any　defence。　For　if　it　had　been　defended　by　proper　valour；　as　are　Germany；　Spain；　and　France；　either　this　invasion　would　not　have　made　the　great　changes　it　has　made　or　it　would　not　have　come　at　all。　And　this　I　consider　enough　to　say　concerning　resistance　to　fortune　in　general。

But　confining　myself　more　to　the　particular；　I　say　that　a　prince　may　be　seen　happy　to…day　and　ruined　to…morrow　without　having　shown　any　change　of　disposition　or　character。　This；　I　believe；　arises　firstly　from　causes　that　have　already　been　discussed　at　length；　namely；　that　the　prince　who　relies　entirely　on　fortune　is　lost　when　it　changes。　I　believe　also　that　he　will　be　successful　who　directs　his　actions　according　to　the　spirit　of　the　times；　and　that　he　whose　actions　do　not　accord　with　the　times　will　not　be　successful。　Because　men　are　seen；　in　affairs　that　lead　to　the　end　which　every　man　has　before　him；　namely；　glory　and　riches；　to　get　there　by　various　methods；　one　with　caution；　another　with　haste；　one　by　force；　another　by　skill；　one　by　patience；　another　by　its　opposite；　and　each　one　succeeds　in　reaching　the　goal　by　a　different　method。　One　can　also　see　of　two　cautious　men　the　one　attain　his　end；　the　other　fail；　and　similarly；　two　men　by　different　observances　are　equally　successful；　the　one　being　cautious；　the　other　impetuous；　all　this　arises　from　nothing　else　than　whether　or　not　they　conform　in　their　methods　to　the　spirit　of　the　times。　This　follows　from　what　I　have　said；　that　two　men　working　differently　bring　about　the　same　effect；　and　of　two　working　similarly；　one　attains　his　object　and　the　other　does　not。

Changes　in　estate　also　issue　from　this；　for　if；　to　one　who　governs　himself　with　caution　and　patience；　times　and　affairs　converge　in　such　a　way　that　his　administration　is　successful；　his　fortune　is　made；　but　if　times　and　affairs　change；　he　is　ruined　if　he　does　not　change　his　course　of　action。　But　a　man　is　not　often　found　sufficiently　circumspect　to　know　how　to　accommodate　himself　to　the　change；　both　because　he　cannot　deviate　from　what　nature　inclines　him　to　do；　and　also　because；　having　always　prospered　by　acting　in　one　way；　he　cannot　be　persuaded　that　it　is　well　to　leave　it；　and；　therefore；　the　cautious　man；　when　it　is　time　to　turn　adventurous；　does　not　know　how　to　do　it；　hence　he　is　ruined；　but　had　he　changed　his　conduct　with　the　times　fortune　would　not　have　changed。

Pope　Julius　the　Second　went　to　work　impetuously　in　all　his　affairs；　and　found　the　times　and　circumstances　conform　so　well　to　that　line　of　action　that　he　always　met　with　success。　Consider　his　first　enterprise　against　Bologna；　Messer　Giovanni　Bentivogli　being　still　alive。　The　Venetians　were　not　agreeable　to　it；　nor　was　the　King　of　Spain；　and　he　had　the　enterprise　still　under　discussion　with　the　King　of　France；　nevertheless　he　personally　entered　upon　the　expedition　with　his　accustomed　boldness　and　energy；　a　move　which　made　Spain　and　the　Venetians　stand　irresolute　and　passive；　the　latter　from　fear；　the　former　from　desire　to　recover　the　kingdom　of　Naples；　on　the　other　hand；　he　drew　after　him　the　King　of　France；　because　that　king；　having　observed　the　movement；　and　desiring　to　make　the　Pope　his　friend　so　as　to　humble　the　Venetians；　found　it　impossible　to　refuse　him。　Therefore　Julius　with　his　impetuous　action　accomplished　what　no　other　pontiff　with　simple　human　wisdom　could　have　done；　for　if　he　had　waited　in　Rome　until　he　could　get　away；　with　his　plans　arranged　and　everything　fixed；　as　any　other　pontiff　would　have　done；　he　would　never　have　succeeded。　Because　the　King　of　France　would　have　made　a　thousand　excuses；　and　the　others　would　have　raised　a　thousand　fears。

I　will　leave　his　other　actions　alone；　as　they　were　all　alike；　and　they　all　succeeded；　for　the　shortness　of　his　life　did　not　let　him　experience　the　contrary；　but　if　circumstances　had　arisen　which　required　him　to　go　cautiously；　his　ruin　would　have　followed；　because　he　would　never　have　deviated　from　those　ways　to　which　nature　inclined　him。

I　conclude；　therefore　that；　fortune　being　changeful　and　mankind　steadfast　in　their　ways；　so　long　as　the　two　are　in　agreement　men　are　successful；　but　unsuccessful　when　they　fall　out。　For　my　part　I　consider　that　it　is　better　to　be　adventurous　than　cautious；　because　fortune　is　a　woman；　and　if　you　wish　to　keep　her　under　it　is　necessary　to　beat　and　ill…use　her；　and　it　is　seen　that　she　allows　herself　to　be　mastered　by　the　adventurous　rather　than　by　those　who　go　to　work　more　coldly。　She　is；　therefore；　always；　woman…like；　a　lover　of　young　men；　because　they　are　less　cautious；　more　violent；　and　with　more　audacity　command　her。



CHAPTER　XXVI

AN　EXHORTATION　TO　LIBERATE　ITALY　FROM　THE　BARBARIANS

Having　carefully　considered　the　subject　of　the　above　discourses；　and　wondering　within　myself　whether　the　present　times　were　propitious　to　a　new　prince；　and　whether　there　were　elements　that　would　give　an　opportunity　to　a　wise　and　virtuous　one　to　introduce　a　new　order　of　things　which　would　do　honour　to　him　and　good　to　the　people　of　this　country；　it　appears　to　me　that　so　many　things　concur　to　favour　a　new　prince　that　I　never　knew　a　time　more　fit　than　the　present。

And　if；　as　I　said；　it　was　necessary　that　the　people　of　Israel　should　be　captive　so　as　to　make　manifest　the　ability　of　Moses；　that　the　Persians　should　be　oppressed　by　the　Medes　so　as　to　discover　the　greatness　of　the　soul　of　Cyrus；　and　that　the　Athenians　should　be　dispersed　to　illustrate　the　capabilities　of　Theseus：　then　at　the　present　time；　in　order　to　discover　the　virtue　of　an　Italian　spirit；　it　was　necessary　that　Italy　should　be　reduced　to　the　extremity　that　she　is　now　in；　that　she　should　be　more　enslaved　than　the　Hebrews；　more　oppressed　than　the　Persians；　more　scattered　than　the　Athenians；　without　head；　without　order；　beaten；　despoiled；　torn；　overrun；　and　to　have　endured　every　kind　of　desolation。

Although　lately　some　spark　may　have　been　shown　by　one；　which　made　us　think　he　was　ordained　by　God　for　our　redemption；　nevertheless　it　was　afterwards　seen；　in　the　height　of　his　career；　that　fortune　rejected　him；　so　that　Italy；　left　as　without　life；　waits　for　him　who　shall　yet　heal　her　wounds　and　put　an　end　to　the　ravaging　and　plundering　of　Lombardy；　to　the　swindling　and　taxing　of　the　kingdom　and　of　Tuscany；　and　cleanse　those　sores　that　for　long　have　festered。　It　is　seen　how　she　entreats　God　to　send　someone　who　shall　deliver　her　from　these　wrongs　and　barbarous　insolencies。　It　is　seen　also　that　she　is　ready　and　willing　to　follow　a　banner　if　only　someone　will　raise　it。

Nor　is　there　to　be　seen　at　present　one　in　whom　she　can　place　more　hope　than　in　your　illustrious　house；＇*＇　with　its　valour　and　fortune；　favoured　by　God　and　by　the　Church　of　which　it　is　now　the　chief；　and　which　could　be　made　the　head　of　this　redemption。　This　will　not　be　difficult　if　you　will　recall　to　yourself　the　actions　and　lives　of　the　men　I　have　named。　And　although　they　were　great　and　wonderful　men；　yet　they　were　men；　and　each　one　of　them　had　no　more　opportunity　t