the.world.is.flat-第100部分

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to　accommodate　a　rising　Japan　and　Germany　had　after　World　War　I。　
If　current　trends　hold；　China　will　go　from　importing　7　million　barrels　of　oil　today　
to　14　million　a　day　by　2012。　For　the　world　to　accommodate　that　increase　it　would　have　
to　find　another　SaudiArabia。　That　is　notlikely；　which　doesn't　leave　many　good　options。　
〃For　geopolitical　reasons；　we　cannot　tell　them　no；　we　cannot　tell　China　and　India；　
it　is　not　your　turn；〃　said　Philip　K。　Verleger　Jr。；　a　leading　oil　economist。　〃And　for　
moral　reasons；　we　have　lost　the　ability　to　lecture　anyone。〃　But　if　we　do　nothing；　
several　things　will　likely　result。　First；　gasoline　prices　will　continue　to　trend　


higher　and　higher。　Second；　we　will　be　strengthening　the　very　worst　political　systems　
in　the　world…like　Sudan；　Iran；　and　Saudi　Arabia。　And　third；　the　environment　will　be　
damaged　more　and　more。　Already；　the　newspaper　headlines　in　China　every　day　are　about　
energy　shortages；　blackouts；　and　brownouts。　U。S。　officials　estimate　that　twenty…four　
out　of　China's　thirty…one　provinces　are　now　experiencing　power　shortages。　
We　are　all　stewards　of　the　planet；　and　the　test　for　our　generation　is　whether　we　will　
pass　on　a　planet　in　as　good　or　better　shape　than　we　found　
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it。　The　flattening　process　is　going　to　challenge　that　responsibility。　〃Aldo　Leopold；　
the　father　of　wildlife　ecology；　once　said：　'The　first　rule　of　intelligent　tinkering　
is　save　all　the　pieces；'〃　remarked　Glenn　Prickett；　senior　vice　president　of　
Conservation　International。　〃What　if　we　don't？　What　if　the　3　billion　new　entrants　
start　gobbling　up　all　the　resources？　Species　and　ecosystems　can't　adapt　that　fast；　
and　we　will　lose　a　major　portion　of　the　earth's　remaining　biological　diversity。〃　
Already；　noted　Prickett；　if　you　look　at　what　is　happening　in　the　Congo　Basin；　the　
Amazon；　the　rain　forest　of　Indonesia…the　last　great　wilderness　areas…you　find　that　
they　are　being　devoured　by　China's　rising　appetite。　More　and　more　palm　oil　is　being　
extracted　from　Indonesia　and　Malaysia；　soybeans　out　of　Brazil；　timber　out　of　central　
Africa；　and　natural　gas　out　of　all　of　the　above　to　serve　China…and；　as　a　result；　
threatening　all　sorts　of　natural　habitats。　If　these　trends　go　on　unchecked；　with　all　
the　natural　habitats　being　converted　to　farmland　and　urban　areas；　and　the　globe　
getting　warmer；　many　of　the　currently　threatened　species　will　be　condemned　to　
extinction。　
The　move　to　sharply　reduce　energy　consumption　has　to　come　from　within　China；　as　the　
Chinese　confront　what　the　need　for　fuel　is　doing　to　their　own　environment　and　growth　
aspirations。　The　only　thing…and　the　best　thing…we　in　the　United　States　and　Western　
Europe　can　do　to　nudge　China　toward　that　understanding　is　set　an　example　by　changing　
our　own　consumption　patterns。　That　would　give　us　some　credibility　to　lecture　others。　
〃Restoring　our　moral　standing　on　energy　is　now　a　vital　national　security　and　
environmental　issue；〃　said　Verleger。　That　requires　doing　everything　more　
seriously…more　serious　government　funding　for　alternatives；　a　real　push　by　the　
federal　government　to　promote　conservation；　a　gasoline　tax　that　will　drive　more　
consumers　to　buy　hybrid　vehicles　and　smaller　cars；　legislation　to　force　Detroit　to　
make　more　fuel…efficient　vehicles；　and　yes；　more　domestic　exploration。　Together；　
added　Verleger；　that　could　help　stabilize　the　price　at　around　25　a　barrel；　〃which　
seems　to　be　the　ideal　range　for　sustainable　global　growth。〃　
In　sum；　we　in　the　West　have　a　fundamental　interest　in　keeping　the　American　dream　alive　
in　Beijing　and　Boise　and　Bangalore。　But　we　have　to　stop　fooling　ourselves　that　it　
can　be　done　in　a　flat　world　with　3　billion　potential　new　consumers…if　we　don't　find　
a　radical　new　approach　to　en413　
ergy　usage　and　conservation。　If　we　fail　to　do　so；　we　will　be　courting　both　an　
environmental　and　geopolitical　whirlwind。　If　there　was　ever　a　time　for　some　big　
collaboration；　it　is　now；　and　the　subject　is　energy。　I　would　love　to　see　a　grand　


China…United　States　Manhattan　Project；　a　crash　program　to　jointly　develop　clean　
alternative　energies；　bringing　together　China's　best　scientists　and　its　political　
ability　to　implement　pilot　projects；　with　America's　best　brains；　technology；　and　
money。　It　would　be　the　ideal　model　and　the　ideal　project　for　creating　value　
horizontally；　with　each　side　contributing　its　strength。　Said　Scott　Roberts；　the　
Cambridge　Energy　Research　Associates　analyst　in　China；　〃When　it　comes　to　renewable　
technology　and　sustainable　energy；　China　could　be　the　laboratory　of　the　world…not　
just　the　workshop　of　the　world。〃　Why　not？　

：：：：：　TWELVE　
The　Dell　Theory　of　Conflict　Prevention　
Old…Time　Versus　Just…in…Time　
Free　Trade　is　God's　diplomacy。　There　is　no　other　certain　way　of　uniting　people　in　
the　bonds　of　peace。　…British　politician　Richard　Cobden；　1857　
Before　I　share　with　you　the　subject　of　this　chapter；　I　have　to　tell　you　a　little　bit　
about　the　computer　that　I　wrote　this　book　on。　It's　related　to　the　theme　I　am　about　
to　discuss。　This　book　was　largely　written　on　a　Dell　Inspiron　600m　notebook；　service　
tag　number　9ZRJP41。　As　part　of　the　research　for　this　book71　visited　withthe　management　
team　at　Dell　near　Austin；　Texas。　I　shared　with　them　the　ideas　in　this　book　and　in　
return　I　asked　for　one　favor：　I　asked　them　to　trace　for　me　the　entire　global　supply　
chain　that　produced　my　Dell　notebook。　Here　is　their　report：　My　computer　was　conceived　
when　I　phoned　Dell's　800　number　on　April　2；　2004；　and　was　connected　to　sales　
representative　Mujteba　Naqvi；　who　immediately　entered　my　order　into　Dell's　order　
management　system。　He　typed　in　both　the　type　of　notebook　I　ordered　as　well　as　the　
special　features　I　wanted；　along　with　my　personal　information；　shipping　address；　
billing　address；　and　credit　card　information。　My　credit　card　was　verified　by　Dell　
through　its　work　flow　connection　with　Visa；　and　my　order　was　then　released　to　Dell's　
production　system。　Dell　has　six　factories　around　the　world…in　Limerick；　Ireland；　
Xiamen；　China；　Eldorado　do　Sul；　Brazil；　Nashville；　Tennesee；　Austin；　Texas；　and　
Penang；　Malaysia。　My　order　went　out　by　e…mail　to　the　Dell　notebook　factory　inMalaysia；　

where　the　parts　for　the　computer　were　immediately　ordered　from　the　supplier　logistics　
centers　（SLCs）　next　to　the　Penang　factory。　Surrounding　every　Dell　factory　in　the　world　
are　these　supplier　logistics　centers；　owned　by　the　different　suppliers　of　Dell　parts。　
These　SLCs　are　like　staging　areas。　If　you　are　a　Dell　supplier　anywhere　in　the　world；　
your　job　is　to　keep　your　SLC　full　of　your　specific　parts　so　they　can　constantly　be　
trucked　over　to　the　Dell　factory　for　just…in…time　manufacturing。　
〃In　an　average　day；　we　sell　140；000　to　150；000　computers；〃　explained　Dick　Hunter；　
one　of　Dell's　three　global　production　managers。　〃Those　orders　come　in　over　Dell。com　
or　over　the　telephone。　As　soon　these　orders　come　in；　our　suppliers　know　about　it。　
They　get　a　signal　based　on　every　component　in　the　machine　you　ordered；　so　the　supplier　
knows　just　what　he　has　to　deliver。　If　you　are　supplying　power　cords　for　desktops；　
you　can　see　minute　by　minute　how　many　power　cords　you　are　going　to　have　to　deliver。〃　
Every　two　hours；　the　Dell　factory　in　Penang　sends　an　e…mail　to　the　various　SLCs　nearby；　


telling　each　one　what　parts　and　what　quantities　of　those　parts　it　wants　delivered　
within　the　next　ninety　minutes…and　not　one　minute　later。　Within　ninety　minutes；　trucks　
from　the　various　SLCs　around　Penang　pull　up　to　the　Dell　manufacturing　plant　and　unload　
the　parts　needed　for　all　those　notebooks　ordered　in　the　last　two　hours。　This　goes　
on　all　day；　every　two　hours。　As　soon　as　those　parts　arrive　at　the　factory；　it　takes　
thirty　minutes　for　Dell　employees　to　unload　the　parts；　register　their　bar　codes；　and　
put　them　into　the　bins　for　assembly。　〃We　know　where　every　part　in　every　SLC　is　in　
the　Dell　system　at　all　times；〃　said　Hunter。　
So　where　did　the　parts　for　my　notebook　come　from？　I　asked　Hunter。　To　begin　with；　he　
said；　the　notebook　was　codesigned　in　Austin；　Texas；　and　in　Taiwan　by　a　team　of　Dell　
engineers　and　a　team　of　Taiwanese　notebook　designers。　〃The　customer's　needs；　required　
technologies；　and　Dell's　design　innovations　were　all　determined　by　Dell　through　our　
direct　relationship　with　customers；〃　he　explained。　〃The　basic　design　of　the　
motherboard　and　case…the　basic　functionality　of　your　machine…was　designed　to　those　
specifications　by　an　ODM　＇original　design　manufacturer＇　in　Taiwan。　We　put　our　
engineers　in　their　facilities　and　they　come　to　Austin　and　we　actually　codesign　these　
systems。　This　global　teamwork　

brings　an　added　benefit…a　globally　distributed　virtually　twenty…four…hour…per…day　
development　cycle。　Our　partners　do　the　basic　electronics　and　we　help　them　design　
customer　and　reliability　features　that　we　know　our　customers　want。　We　know　the　
customers　better　than　our　suppliers　and　our　competition；　because　we　are　dealing　
directly　with　them　every　day。〃　Dell　notebooks　are　completely　redesigned　roughly　every　
twelve　months；　but　new　features　are　constantly　added　during　the　year…through　the　
supply　chain…as　the　hardware　and　software　components　advance。　
It　happened