the.world.is.flat-第103部分

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products　。　。　。　Such　a　development　would　wipe　trillions　of　dollars　off　the　market　value　
of　technology　companies　listed　in　the　United　States；　Japan　and　Europe。〃　Even　if　
China's　leaders；　like　former　president　Jiang　Zemin；　who　was　once　minister　of　
electronics；　lose　sight　of　how　integrated　China　and　Taiwan　are　in　the　world's　computer　
supply　chain；　they　need　only　ask　their　kids　for　an　update。　Jiang　Zemin's　son；　Jiang　
Mianheng；　wrote　Addison；　〃is　a　partner　in　a　wafer　fabrication　project　in　Shanghai　


with　Winston　Wang　of　Taiwan's　Grace　T。H。W。　Group。〃　And　it　is　not　just　Taiwanese。　
Hundreds　of　big　American　tech　companies　now　have　R　&　D　operations　in　China；　a　war　
that　disrupted　them　could　
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lead　not　only　to　the　companies　moving　their　plants　elsewhere　but　also　to　a　significant　
loss　of　R　&　D　investment　in　China；　which　the　Beijing　government　has　been　betting　on　
to　advance　its　development。　Such　a　war　could　also；　depending　on　how　it　started；　trigger　
a　widespread　American　boycott　of　Chinese　goods…if　China　were　to　snuff　out　the　
Taiwanese　democracy…which　would　lead　to　serious　economic　turmoil　inside　China。　
The　Dell　Theory　had　its　first　real　test　in　December　2004；　when　Taiwan　held　
parliamentary　elections。　President　Chen　Shui…bian's　pro…independence　Democratic　
Progressive　Party　was　expected　to　win　the　legislative　runoff　over　the　main　opposition　
Nationalist　Party；　which　favored　closer　ties　with　Beijing。　Chen　framed　the　election　
as　a　popular　referendum　on　hisproposal　to　write　anew　constitution　that　would　formally　
enshrine　Taiwan's　independence；　ending　the　purposely　ambiguous　status　quo。　Had　Chen　
won　and　moved　ahead　on　his　agenda　to　make　Taiwan　its　own　motherland；　as　opposed　to　
maintaining　the　status　quo　fiction　that　it　is　a　province　of　the　mainland；　it　could　
have　led　to　a　Chinese　military　assault　on　Taiwan。　Everyone　in　the　region　was　holding　
his　or　her　breath。　And　what　happened？　Motherboards　won　over　motherland。　A　majority　
of　Taiwanese　voted　against　the　pro…independence　governing　party　legislative　
candidates；　ensuring　that　the　DPP　would　not　have　a　majority　in　parliament。　I　believe　
the　message　Taiwanese　voters　were　sending　was　not　that　they　never　want　Taiwan　to　be　
independent。　It　was　that　they　do　not　want　to　upset　the　status　quo　right　now；　which　
has　been　so　beneficial　to　so　many　Taiwanese。　The　voters　seemed　to　understand　clearly　
how　interwoven　they　had　become　with　the　mainland；　and　they　wisely　opted　to　maintain　
their　de　facto　independence　rather　than　force　de　jure　independence；　which　might　have　
triggered　a　Chinese　invasion　and　a　very　uncertain　future。　
Warning：　What　I　said　when　I　put　forth　the　McDonald's　theory；　I　would　repeat　even　more　
strenuously　with　the　Dell　Theory：　It　does　not　make　wars　obsolete。　And　it　does　not　
guarantee　that　governments　will　not　engage　in　wars　of　choice；　even　governments　that　
are　part　of　major　supply　chains。　To　suggest　so　would　be　naive。　It　guarantees　only　
that　governments　whose　countries　are　enmeshed　in　global　supply　chains　will　have　
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to　think　three　times；　not　just　twice；　about　engaging　in　anything　but　a　war　of　
self…defense。　And　if　they　choose　to　go　to　war　anyway；　the　price　they　will　pay　will　
be　ten　times　higher　than　it　was　a　decade　ago　and　probably　ten　times　higher　than　whatever　
the　leaders　of　that　country　think。　It　is　one　thing　to　lose　your　McDonald's。　It's　quite　
another　to　fight　a　war　that　costs　you　your　place　in　a　twenty…first…century　supply　
chain　that　may　not　come　back　around　for　a　long　time。　
While　the　biggest　test　case　of　the　Dell　Theory　is　China　versus　Taiwan；　the　fact　is　
that　the　Dell　Theory　has　already　proved　itself　to　some　degree　in　the　case　of　India　
and　Pakistan；　the　context　in　which　I　first　started　to　think　about　it。　I　happened　to　
be　in　India　in　2002；　when　its　just…in…time　services　supply　chains　ran　into　some　very　
old…time　geopolitics…and　the　supply　chain　won。　In　the　case　of　India　and　Pakistan；　


the　Dell　Theory　was　working　on　only　one　party…India…but　it　still　had　a　major　impact。　
India　is　to　the　world's　knowledge　and　service　supply　chain　what　China　and　Taiwan　are　
to　the　manufacturing　ones。　By　now　readers　ofthis　book　know　all　thehighlights：　General　
Electric's　biggest　research　center　outside　the　United　States　is　in　Bangalore；　with　
seventeen　hundred　Indian　engineers；　designers；　and　scientists。　The　brain　chips　for　
many　brand…name　cell　phones　are　designed　in　Bangalore。　Renting　a　car　from　Avis　online？　
It's　managed　in　Bangalore。　Tracing　your　lost　luggage　on　Delta　or　British　Airways　is　
done　from　Bangalore；　and　the　backroom　accounting　and　computer　maintenance　for　scores　
of　global　firms　are　done　from　Bangalore；　Mumbai；　Chennai；　and　other　major　Indian　
cities。　Here's　what　happened：　On　May　31；　2002；　State　Department　spokesman　Richard　
Boucher　issued　a　travel　advisory　saying；　〃We　urge　American　citizens　currently　in　India　
to　depart　the　country；〃　because　the　prospect　of　a　nuclear　exchange　with　Pakistan　was　
becoming　very　real。　Both　nations　were　massing　troops　on　their　borders；　intelligence　
reports　were　suggesting　that　they　both　might　be　dusting　off　their　nuclear　warheads；　
and　CNN　was　flashing　images　of　people　flooding　out　of　India。　The　global　American　firms　
that　had　moved　their　back　rooms　and　R　&　D　operations　to　Bangalore　were　deeply　unnerved。　

〃I　was　actually　surfing　on　the　Web；　and　I　saw　a　travel　advisory　come　up　on　India　on　
a　Friday　evening/'　said　Vivek　Paul；　president　of　Wipro；　which　manages　backroom　
operations　from　India　of　many　American　multinationals。　〃As　soon　as　I　saw　that；　I　said；　
'Oh　my　gosh；　every　customer　that　we　have　is　going　to　have　a　million　questions　on　this。'　
It　was　the　Friday　before　a　long　weekend；　so　over　the　weekend　we　at　Wipro　developed　
a　fail…safe　business　continuity　plan　for　all　of　our　customers。〃　While　Wipro's　
customers　were　pleased　to　see　how　on　top　of　things　the　company　was；　many　of　them　were　
nevertheless　rattled。　This　was　not　in　the　plan　when　they　decided　to　outsource　
mission…critical　research　and　operations　to　India。　Said　Paul；　〃I　had　a　CIO　from　one　
of　our　big　American　clients　send　me　an　e…mail　saying；　1　am　now　spending　a　lot　of　time　
looking　for　alternative　sources　to　India。　I　don't　think　you　want　me　doing　that；　and　
I　don't　want　to　be　doing　it。'　I　immediately　forwarded　his　message　to　the　Indian　
ambassador　in　Washington　and　told　him　to　get　it　to　the　right　person。〃　Paul　would　not　
tell　me　what　company　it　was；　but　I　have　confirmed　through　diplomatic　sources　that　
it　was　United　Technologies。　And　plenty　of　others；　like　American　Express　and　General　
Electric；　with　back　rooms　in　Bangalore；　had　to　have　been　equally　worried。　
For　many　global　companies；　〃the　main　heart　of　their　business　is　now　supported　here；〃　
said　N。　Krishnakumar；　president　of　MindTree；　another　leading　Indian　knowledge　
outsourcing　firm　based　in　Bangalore。　〃It　can　cause　chaos　if　there　is　a　disruption。〃　
While　not　trying　to　meddle　in　foreign　affairs；　he　added；　〃What　we　explained　to　our　
government；　through　the　Confederation　of　Indian　Industry；　is　that　providing　a　stable；　
predictable　operating　environment　is　now　the　key　to　India's　development。〃　This　was　
a　real　education　for　India's　elderly　leaders　in　New　Delhi；　who　had　not　fully　absorbed　
how　critical　India　had　become　to　the　world's　knowledge　supply　chain。　When　you　are　
managing　vital　backroom　operations　for　American　Express　or　General　Electric　or　Avis；　
or　are　responsible　for　tracing　all　the　lost　luggage　on　British　Airways　or　Delta；　you　
cannot　take　a　month；　a　week；　or　even　aday　off　for　war　without　causing　major　disruptions　


for　those　companies。　Once　those　companies　have　made　a　commitment　to　outsource　business　
operations　or　research　to　India；　they　expect　it　to　stay　there。　That　is　a　major　
commitment。　And　if　geopolitics　
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causes　a　serious　disruption；　they　will　leave；　and　they　will　not　come　back　very　easily。　
When　you　lose　this　kind　of　service　trade；　you　can　lose　it　for　good。　
〃What　ends　up　happening　in　the　flat　world　you　described；〃　explained　Paul；　〃is　that　
you　have　only　one　opportunity　to　make　it　right　if　something　＇goes＇　wrong。　Because　
the　disadvantage　of　being　in　a　flat　world　is　that　despite　all　the　nice　engagements　
and　stuff　and　the　exit　barriers　that　you　have；　every　customer　has　multiple　options；　
and　so　the　sense　of　responsibility　you　have　is　not　just　out　of　a　desire　to　do　good　
by　your　customers；　but　also　a　desire　for　self…preservation。〃　
The　Indian　government　got　the　message。　Was　India's　central　place　in　the　world's　
services　supply　chain　the　only　factor　in　getting　Prime　Minister　Vajpayee　to　tone　down　
his　rhetoric　and　step　back　from　the　brink？　Of　course　not。　There　were　other　factors；　
to　be　sure…most　notably　the　deterrent　effect　of　Pakistan's　own　nuclear　arsenal。　But　
clearly；　India's　role　in　global　services　was　an　important　additional　source　of　
restraint　on　its　behavior；　and　it　was　taken　into　account　by　New　Delhi。　〃I　think　it　
sobered　a　lot　of　people；〃　said　Jerry　Rao；　who；　as　noted　earlier；　heads　the　Indian　
high…tech　trade　association。　〃We　engaged　very　seriously；　and　we　tried　to　make　the　
point　that　this　was　very　bad　for　Indian　business。　It　was　very　bad　for　the　Indian　
economy　。　。　。