the.world.is.flat-第32部分

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that　
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China　had　to　integrate　globally　and　that　many　of　their　existing　institutions　would　
simply　not　change　and　reform；　and　so　they　used　the　WTO　as　leverage　against　their　own　
bureaucracy。　And　for　the　last　two　and　half　years　they've　been　slugging　it　out。〃　
Over　time；　adherence　to　WTO　standards　will　make　China's　economy　even　flatter　and　more　
of　a　flattener　globally。　But　this　transition　will　not　be　easy；　and　the　chances　of　
a　political　or　economic　crackup　that　disrupts　or　slows　this　process　are　not　
insignificant。　But　even　if　China　implements　all　the　WTO　reforms；　it　won't　be　able　
to　rest。　It　will　soon　be　reaching　a　point　where　its　ambitions　for　economic　growth　


will　require　more　political　reform。　China　will　never　root　out　corruption　without　a　
free　press　and　active　civil　society　institutions。　It　can　never　really　become　efficient　
without　a　more　codified　rule　of　law。　It　will　never　be　able　to　deal　with　the　inevitable　
downturns　in　its　economy　without　a　more　open　political　system　that　allows　people　to　
vent　their　grievances。　To　put　it　another　way；　China　will　never　be　truly　flat　until　
it　gets　over　that　huge　speed　bump　called　〃political　reform。〃　
It　seems　to　be　heading　in　that　direction；　but　it　still　has　a　long　way　to　go。　I　like　
the　way　a　U。S。　diplomat　in　China　put　it　to　me　in　the　spring　of　2004：　〃China　right　
now　is　doing　titillation；　notprivatization。　Reform　here　is　translucent…and　sometimes　
it　is　quite　titillating；　because　you　can　see　the　shapes　moving　behind　the　screen…but　
it　is　not　transparent。　＇The　government　still　just　gives＇　the　information　＇about　the　
economy＇　to　a　few　companies　and　designated　interest　groups。〃　Why　only　translucent？　
I　asked。　He　answered；　〃Because　if　you　are　fully　transparent；　what　do　you　do　with　the　
feedback？　They　don't　know　how　to　deal　with　that　question。　They　cannot　deal　＇yet＇　with　
the　results　of　transparency。〃　
If　and　when　China　gets　over　that　political　bump　in　the　road；　I　think　it　could　become　
not　only　a　bigger　platform　for　offshoring　but　another　free…market　version　of　the　
United　States。　While　that　may　seem　threatening　to　some；　I　think　it　would　be　an　
incredibly　positive　development　for　the　world。　Think　about　how　many　new　products；　
ideas；　jobs；　and　consumers　arose　from　Western　Europe's　and　Japan's　efforts　to　become　
free…market　democracies　after　World　War　II。　The　process　unleashed　an　

unprecedented　period　of　global　prosperity…and　the　world　wasn't　even　flat　then。　It　
had　a　wall　in　the　middle。　If　India　and　China　move　in　that　direction；　the　world　will　
not　only　become　flatter　than　ever　but　also；　I　am　convinced；　more　prosperous　than　ever。　
Three　United　States　are　better　than　one；　and　five　would　be　better　than　three。　
But　even　as　a　free…trader；　I　am　worried　about　the　challenge　this　will　pose　to　wages　
and　benefits　of　certain　workers　in　the　United　States；　at　least　in　the　short　run。　It　
is　too　late　for　protectionism　when　it　comes　to　China。　Its　economy　is　totally　
interlinked　with　those　of　the　developed　world；　and　trying　to　delink　it　would　cause　
economic　and　geopolitical　chaos　that　could　devastate　the　global　economy。　Americans　
and　Europeans　will　have　to　develop　new　business　models　that　will　enable　them　to　get　
the　best　out　of　China　and　cushion　themselves　against　some　of　the　worst。　As　BusinessWeek；　
in　its　dramatic　December　6；　2004；　cover　story　on　〃The　China　Price；〃　put　it；　〃Can　China　
dominate　everything？　Of　course　not。America　remains　the　world's　biggest　manufacturer；　
producing　75％　of　what　it　consumes；　though　that's　down　from　90％　in　the　mid…'90s。　
Industries　requiring　huge　R&D　budgets　and　capital　investment；　such　as　aerospace；　
pharmaceuticals；　and　cars；　still　have　strong　bases　in　the　U。S。　。　。　。　America　will　
surely　continue　to　benefit　from　China's　expansion。〃　That　said；　unless　America　can　
deal　with　the　long…term　industrial　challenge　posed　bythe　China　price　in　so　many　areas；　
〃it　will　suffer　a　loss　of　economic　power　and　influence。〃　
Or；　to　put　it　another　way；　if　Americans　and　Europeans　want　to　benefit　from　the　
flattening　of　the　world　and　the　interconnecting　of　all　the　markets　and　knowledge　
centers；　they　will　all　have　to　run　at　least　as　fast　as　the　fastest　lion…and　I　suspect　


that　lion　will　be　China；　and　I　suspect　that　will　be　pretty　darn　fast。　
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Flattener　#7　
Sup　ply…Chain　ing　
Eating　Sushi　in　Arkansas　
I　had　never　seen　what　a　supply　chain　looked　like　in　action　until　I　visited　Wal…Mart　
headquarters　in　Bentonville；　Arkansas。　My　Wal…Mart　hosts　took　me　over　to　the　
1。2…million…square…foot　distribution　center；　where　we　climbed　up　to　a　viewing　perch　
and　watched　the　show。　On　one　side　of　the　building；　scores　of　white　Wal…Mart　trailer　
trucks　were　dropping　off　boxes　of　merchandise　from　thousands　of　different　suppliers。　
Boxes　large　and　small　were　fed　up　a　conveyor　belt　at　each　loading　dock。　These　little　
conveyor　belts　fed　into　a　bigger　belt；　like　streams　feeding　into　a　powerful　river。　
Twenty…four　hours　a　day；　seven　days　a　week；　the　suppliers'　trucks　feed　the　twelve　
miles　of　conveyor　streams；　and　the　conveyor　streams　feed　into　a　huge　Wal…Mart　river　
of　boxed　products。　But　that　is　just　half　the　show。　As　the　Wal…Mart　river　flows　along；　
an　electric　eye　reads　the　bar　codes　on　each　box　on　its　way　to　the　other　side　of　the　
building。　There；　the　river　parts　again　into　a　hundred　streams。　Electric　arms　from　
each　stream　reach　out　and　guide　the　boxes…ordered　by　particular　Wal…Mart　stores…　off　
the　main　river　and　down　its　stream；　where　another　conveyor　belt　sweeps　them　into　a　
waiting　Wal…Mart　truck；　which　will　rush　these　particular　products　onto　the　shelves　
of　a　particular　Wal…Mart　store　somewhere　in　the　country。　There；　a　consumer　will　lift　
one　of　these　products　off　the　shelf；　and　the　cashier　will　scan　it　in；　and　the　moment　
that　happens；　a　signal　will　be　generated。　That　signal　will　go　out　across　the　Wal…Mart　
network　to　the　supplier　of　that　product…whether　that　supplier's　factory　is　in　coastal　
China　or　coastal　Maine。　That　signal　will　pop　up　on　the　supplier's　computer　screen　
and　prompt　him　to　make　another　of　that　item　and　ship　it　via　the　Wal…Mart　supply　chain；　
and　the　whole　cycle　will　start　anew。　So　no　sooner　does　your　arm　lift　a　product　off　
the　local　Wal…Mart's　shelf　and　onto　the　checkout　counter　than　another　mechanical　arm　
starts　making　another　one　somewhere　in　the　world。　Call　it　〃the　Wal…Mart　Symphony〃　
in　multiple　movements…with　no　finale。　It　just　plays　over　and　over　24/7/365：　delivery；　
sorting；　packing；　distribution；　buying；　manufacturing；　reordering；　delivery；　
sorting；　packing　。　。　。　
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Just　one　company；　Hewlett…Packard；　will　sell　four　hundred　thousand　computers　through　
the　four　thousand　Wal…Mart　stores　worldwide　in　one　day　during　the　Christmas　season；　
which　will　require　HPto　adjust　its　supply　chain；　to　make　sure　that　all　ofits　standards　
interface　with　Wal…Mart's；　so　that　these　computers　flow　smoothly　into　the　Wal…Mart　
river；　into　the　Wal…Mart　streams；　into　the　Wal…Mart　stores。　
Wal…Mart's　ability　to　bring　off　this　symphony　on　a　global　scale…moving　2。3　billion　
general　merchandise　cartons　a　year　down　its　supply　chain　into　its　stores…has　made　
it　the　most　important　example　of　the　next　great　flat…tener　I　want　to　discuss；　which　
I　call　supply…chaining。　Supply…chaining　is　a　method　of　collaborating　
horizontally…among　suppliers；　retailers；　and　customers…to　create　value。　
Supply…chaining　is　both　enabled　by　the　flattening　of　the　world　and　a　hugely　important　


flattener　itself；　because　the　more　these　supply　chains　grow　and　proliferate；　the　more　
they　force　the　adoption　of　common　standards　between　companies　（so　that　every　link　
of　every　supply　chain　can　interface　with　the　next）；　the　more　they　eliminate　points　
of　friction　at　borders；　the　more　the　efficiencies　of　one　company　get　adopted　by　the　
others；　and　the　more　they　encourage　global　collaboration。　
As　consumers；　we　love　supply　chains；　because　they　deliver　us　all　sorts　of　goods…from　
tennis　shoes　to　laptop　computers…at　lower　and　lower　prices。　That　is　how　Wal…Mart　
became　the　world's　biggest　retailer。　But　as　workers；　we　are　sometimes　ambivalent　or　
hostile　to　these　supply　chains；　because　they　expose　us　to　higher　and　higher　pressures　
to　compete；　cut　costs；　and　also；　at　times；　cut　wages　and　benefits。　That　is　how　Wal…Mart　
became　one　of　the　world's　most　controversial　companies。　No　company　has　been　more　
efficient　at　improving　its　supply　chain　（and　thereby　flattening　the　world）　than　
Wal…Mart；　and　no　company　epitomizes　the　tension　that　supply　chains　evoke　between　the　
consumer　in　us　and　the　worker　in　us　than　Wal…Mart。　A　September　30；　2002；　article　in　
Computer…world　summed　up　Wal…Mart's　pivotal　role：　〃'Being　a　supplier　to　Wal…Mart　is　
a　two…edged　sword；'　says　Joseph　R。　Eckroth　Jr。；　CIO　at　Mattel　Inc。　'They're　a　
phenomenal　channel　but　a　tough　customer。　They　demand　excellence。'　It's　a　lesson　that　
the　El　Segundo；　Calif。…based　toy　manufacturer　and　thousands　of　other　suppliers　
learned　as　the　world's　largest　retailer；　Wal…Mart　Stores　Inc。；　built　an　inventory　
and　supply　chain　man…　

agement　system　that　changed　the　face　of　business。　By　investing　early　and　heavily　in　
cutting…edge　technology　to　identify　and　track　sales　on　t