war and the future-第20部分

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shell　delivery；　and　we　are　teaching　them　that　we　can　play　it
better；　in　the　hope　that　so　we　and　the　world　may　be　freed　from
the　German　will…to…power　and　all　its　humiliating　and　disgusting
consequences　henceforth　for　ever。　　Europe　now　is　no　more　than　a
household　engaged　in　holding　up　and　if　possible　overpowering　a
monomaniac　member。


4

Now　the　whole　of　this　process　of　the　making　and　delivery　of　a
shell；　which　is　the　main　process　of　modern　warfare；　is　one　that
can　be　far　better　conducted　by　a　man　accustomed　to　industrial
organisation　or　transit　work　than　by　the　old　type　of　soldier。
This　is　a　thing　that　cannot　be　too　plainly　stated　or　too　often
repeated。　　Germany　nearly　won　this　way　because　of　her
tremendously　modern　industrial　resources；　but　she　blundered　into
it　and　she　is　losing　it　because　she　has　too　many　men　in　military
uniform　and　because　their　tradition　and　interests　were　to
powerful　with　her。　　All　the　state　and　glories　of　soldiering；　the
bright　uniforms；　the　feathers　and　spurs；　the　flags；　the　march…
past；　the　disciplined　massed　advance；　the　charge；　all　these　are
as　needless　and　obsolete　now　in　war　as　the　masks　and　shields　of
an　old…time　Chinese　brave。　　Liberal…minded　people　talk　of　the
coming　dangers　of　militarism　in　the　face　of　events　that　prove
conclusively　that　professional　militarism　is　already　as　dead　as
Julius　Caesar。　　What　is　coming　is　not　so　much　the　conversion
of　men　into　soldiers　as　the　socialisation　of　the　economic
organisation　of　the　country　with　a　view　to　both　national　and
international　necessities。　　We　do　not　want　to　turn　a　chemist　or　a
photographer　into　a　little　figure　like　a　lead　soldier；　moving
mechanically　at　the　word　of　command；　but　we　do　want　to　make　his
chemistry　or　photography　swiftly　available　if　the　national
organisation　is　called　upon　to　fight。

We　have　discovered　that　the　modern　economic　organisation　is　in
itself　a　fighting　machine。　　It　is　so　much　so　that　it　is　capable
of　taking　on　and　defeating　quite　easily　any　merely　warrior　people
that　is　so　rash　as　to　pit　itself　against　it。　　Within　the　last
sixteen　years　methods　of　fighting　have　been　elaborated　that　have
made　war　an　absolutely　hopeless　adventure　for　any　barbaric　or　non…
industrialised　people。　　In　the　rush　of　larger　events　few　people
have　realised　the　significance　of　the　rapid　squashing　of　the
Senussi　in　western　Egypt；　and　the　collapse　of　De　Wet's　rebellion
in　South　Africa。　　Both　these　struggles　would　have　been　long；
tedious　and　uncertain　even　in　A。D。　　1900。　　This　time　they　have
been；　so　to　speak；　child's　play。

Occasionally　into　the　writer's　study　there　come　to　hand　drifting
fragments　of　the　American　literature　upon　the　question　of
〃preparedness；〃　and　American　papers　discussing　the　Mexican
situation。　　In　none　of　these　is　there　evident　any　clear
realisation　of　the　fundamental　revolution　that　has　occurred　in
military　methods　during　the　last　two　years。　　It　looks　as　if　a
Mexican　war；　for　example；　was　thought　of　as　an　affair　of　rather
imperfectly　trained　young　men　with　rifles　and　horses　and　old…
fashioned　things　like　that。　　A　Mexican　war　on　that　level　might　be
as　tedious　as　the　South　African　war。　　But　if　the　United　States
preferred　to　go　into　Mexican　affairs　with　what　I　may　perhaps　call
a　1916　autumn　outfit　instead　of　the　small　1900　outfit　she　seems
to　possess　at　present；　there　is　no　reason　why　America　should　not
clear　up　any　and　every　Mexican　guerilla　force　she　wanted　to　in　a
few　weeks。

To　do　that　she　would　need　a　plant　of　a　few　hundred　aeroplanes；
for　the　most　part　armed　with　machine　guns；　and　the　motor　repair
vans　and　so　forth　needed　to　go　with　the　aeroplanes；　she　would
need　a　comparatively　small　army　of　infantry　armed　with　machine
guns；　with　motor　transport；　and　a　few　small　land　ironclads。　　Such
a　force　could　locate；　overtake；　destroy　and　disperse　any　possible
force　that　a　country　in　the　present　industrial　condition　of
Mexico　could　put　into　the　field。　　No　sort　of　entrenchment　or
fortification　possible　in　Mexico　could　stand　against　it。　　It
could　go　from　one　end　of　the　country　to　the　other　without　serious
loss；　and　hunt　down　and　capture　anyone　it　wished。。。。

The　practical　political　consequence　of　the　present　development　of
warfare；　of　the　complete　revolution　in　the　conditions　of　warfare
since　this　century　began；　is　to　make　war　absolutely　hopeless　for
any　peoples　not　able　either　to　manufacture　or　procure　the　very
complicated　appliances　and　munitions　now　needed　for　its
prosecution。　　Countries　like　Mexico；　Bulgaria；　Serbia；
Afghanistan　or　Abyssinia　are　no　more　capable　of　going　to　war
without　the　connivance　and　help　of　manufacturing　states　than
horses　are　capable　of　flying。　　And　this　makes　possible　such　a
complete　control　of　war　by　the　few　great　states　which　are　at　the
necessary　level　of　industrial　development　as　not　the　most　Utopian
of　us　have　hitherto　dared　to　imagine。


5

Infantrymen　with　automobile　transport；　plentiful　machine　guns；
Tanks　and　such…like　accessories；　that　is　the　first　Arm　in　modern
war。　　The　factory　hand　and　all　the　material　of　the　shell　route
from　the　factory　to　the　gun　constitute　the　second　Arm。　　Thirdly
comes　the　artillery；　the　guns　and　the　photographic　aeroplanes
working　with　the　guns。　　Next　I　suppose　we　must　count　sappers　and
miners　as　a　fourth　Arm　of　greatly　increased　importance。　　The
fifth　and　last　combatant　Arm　is　the　modern　substitute　for
cavalry；　and　that　also　is　essentially　a　force　of　aeroplanes
supported　by　automobiles。　　Several　of　the　French　leaders　with
whom　I　talked　seemed　to　be　convinced　that　the　horse　is　absolutely
done　with　in　modern　warfare。　　There　is　nothing；　they　declared；
that　cavalry　ever　did　that　cannot　now　be　done　better　by
aeroplane。

This　is　something　to　break　the　hearts　of　the　Prussian　junkers　and
of　old…fashioned　British　army　people。　　The　hunt　across　the
English　countryside；　the　preservation　of　the　fox　as　a　sacred
animal；　the　race　meeting；　the　stimulation　of　betting　in　all
classes　of　the　public；　all　these　things　depend　ultimately　upon
the　proposition　that　the　〃breed　of　horses〃　is　of　vital　importance
to　the　military　strength　of　Great　Britain。　　But　if　the　arguments
of　these　able　French　soldiers　are　sound；　the　cult　of　the　horse
ceases　to　be　of　any　more　value　to　England　than　the　elegant
activities　of　the　Toxophilite　Society。　　Moreover；　there　has　been
a　colossal　buying　of　horses　for　the　British　army；　a　tremendous
organisation　for　the　purchase　and　supply　of　fodder；　then
employment　of　tens　of　thousands　of　men　as　grooms；　minders　and　the
like；　who　would　otherwise　have　been　in　the　munition　factories　or
the　trenches。

To　what　possible　use　can　cavalry　be　put？　　Can　it　be　used　in
attack？　　Not　against　trenches；　that　is　better　done　by　infantrymen
following　up　gunfire。　　Can　it　be　used　against　broken　infantry　in
the　open？　　Not　if　the　enemy　has　one　or　two　machine　guns　covering
their　retreat。　　Against　expose　infantry　the　swooping　aeroplane
with　a　machine　gun　is　far　more　deadly　and　more　difficult　to　hit。
Behind　it　your　infantry　can　follow　to　receive　surrenders；　in　most
circumstances　they　can　come　up　on　cycles　if　it　is　a　case　of
getting　up　quickly　across　a　wide　space。　　Similarly　for　pursuit
the　use　of　wire　and　use　of　the　machine　gun　have　abolished　the
possibility　of　a　pouring　cavalry　charge。　　The　swooping　aeroplane
does　everything　that　cavalry　can　do　in　the　way　of　disorganising
the　enemy；　and　far　more　than　it　can　do　in　the　way　of　silencing
machine　guns。　　It　can　capture　guns　in　retreat　much　more　easily　by
bombing　traction　engines　and　coming　down　low　and　shooting　horses
and　men。　　An　ideal　modern　pursuit　would　be　an　advance　of　guns；
automobiles　full　of　infantry；　motor　cyclists　and　cyclists；　behind
a　high　screen　of　observation　aeroplanes　and　a　low　screen　of
bombing　and　fighting　aeroplanes。　　Cavalry　/might/　advance
across　fields　and　so　forth；　but　only　as　a　very　accessory　part　of
the　general　advance。。。。

And　what　else　is　there　for　the　cavalry　to　do？

It　may　be　argued　that　horses　can　go　over　country　that　is
impossible　for　automobiles。　　That　is　to　ignore　altogether　what
has　been　done　in　this　war　by　such　devices　as　caterpillar　wheels。
So　far　from　cavalry　being　able　to　negotiate　country　where
machines　would　stick　and　fail；　mechanism　can　now　ride　over　places
where　any　horse　would　flounder。

I　submit　these　considerations　to　the　horse…lover。　　They　are　not
my　original　observations；　they　have　been　put　to　me　and　they　have
convinced　me。　　Except　perhaps　as　a　parent　of　transport　mules　I
see　no　further　part　henceforth　for　the　horse　to　play　in　war。


6

The　form　and　texture　of　the　coming　warfareif　there　is　still
warfare　to　comeare　not　yet　to　be　seen　in　their　completeness
upon　the　modern　battlefield。　　One　swallow　does　not　make　a　summer；
nor　a　handful　of　aeroplanes；　a　〃Tank〃　or　so；　a　few　acres　of　shell
craters；　and　a　village　here　and　there；　pounded　out　of
recognition；　do　more　than　foreshadow　the　spectacle　of　modernised
war　on　land。　　War　by　these　developments　has　become　the　monopoly
of　the　five　great　industrial　powers；　it　is　their　alternative　to
end　or　evolve　it；　and　if　they　continue　to　disagree；　then　it　must
needs　become　a　spectacle　of　majestic　horror　such　as　no　man　can
yet　conceive。