war and the future-第24部分

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conflict　of　ideas；　traditions；　and　mental　habits。　　The　German
Will　clothed　in　conceptions　of　aggression　and　fortified　by
cynical　falsehood；　struggles　against　the　fundamental　sanity　of
the　German　mind　and　the　confused　protest　of　mankind。　　So　that　the
most　permanently　important　thing　in　the　tragic　process　of　this
war　is　the　change　of　opinion　that　is　going　on。　　What　are　people
making　of　it？　　Is　it　producing　any　great　common　understandings；
any　fruitful　unanimities？　　

No　doubt　it　is　producing　enormous　quantities　of　cerebration；　but
is　it　anything　more　than　chaotic　and　futile　cerebration？　　We　are
told　all　sorts　of　things　in　answer　to　that；　things　without　a
scrap　of　evidence　or　probability　to　support　them。　　It　is；　we　are
assured；　turning　people　to　religion；　making　them　moral　and
thoughtful。　　It　is　also；　we　are　assured　with　equal　confidence；
turning　them　to　despair　and　moral　disaster。　　It　will　be　followed
by　（1）　a　period　of　moral　renascence；　and　（2）　a　debauch。　　It　is
going　to　make　the　workers　（1）　more　and　（2）　less　obedient　and
industrious。　　It　is　（1）　inuring　men　to　war　and　（2）　filling　them
with　a　passionate　resolve　never　to　suffer　war　again。　　And　so　on。
I　propose　now　to　ask　what　is　really　happening　in　this　matter？　　How
is　human　opinion　changing？　　I　have　opinions　of　my　own　and　they　are
bound　to　colour　my　discussion。　　The　reader　must　allow　for　that；
and　as　far　as　possible　I　will　remind　him　where　necessary　to　make
his　allowance。

Now　first　I　would　ask；　is　any　really　continuous　and　thorough
mental　process　going　on　at　all　about　this　war？　　I　mean；　is　there
any　considerable　number　of　people　who　are　seeing　it　as　a　whole；
taking　it　in　as　a　whole；　trying　to　get　a　general　idea　of　it　from
which　they　can　form　directing　conclusions　for　the　future？　　Is
there　any　considerable　number　of　people　even　trying　to　do　that？
At　any　rate　let　me　point　out　first　that　there　is　quite　an
enormous　mass　of　people　whoin　spite　of　the　fact　that　their
minds　are　concentrated　on　aspects　of　this　war；　who　are　at　present
hearing；　talking；　experiencing　little　else　than　the　warare
nevertheless　neither　doing　nor　trying　to　do　anything　that
deserves　to　be　called　thinking　about　it　at　all。　　They　may　even　be
suffering　quite　terribly　by　it。　　But　they　are　no　more　mastering
its　causes；　reasons；　conditions；　and　the　possibility　of　its
future　prevention　than　a　monkey　that　has　been　rescued　in　a
scorching　condition　from　the　burning　of　a　house　will　have
mastered　the　problem　of　a　fire。　　It　is　just　happening　to　and
about　them。　　It　may；　for　anything　they　have　learnt　about　it；
happen　to　them　again。

A　vast　majority　of　people　are　being　swamped　by　the　spectacular
side　of　the　business。　　It　was　very　largely　my　fear　of　being　so
swamped　myself　that　made　me　reluctant　to　go　as　a　spectator　to　the
front。　　I　knew　that　my　chances　of　being　hit　by　a　bullet　were
infinitesimal；　but　I　was　extremely　afraid　of　being　hit　by　some
too　vivid　impression。　　I　was　afraid　that　I　might　see　some
horribly　wounded　man　or　some　decayed　dead　body　that　would　so　scar
my　memory　and　stamp　such　horror　into　me　as　to　reduce　me　to　a　mere
useless；　gibbering；　stop…the…war…at…any…price　pacifist。　　Years
ago　my　mind　was　once　darkened　very　badly　for　some　weeks　with　a
kind　of　fear　and　distrust　of　life　through　a　sudden　unexpected
encounter　one　tranquil　evening　with　a　drowned　body。　　But　in　this
journey　in　Italy　and　France；　although　I　have　had　glimpses　of　much
death　and　seen　many　wounded　men；　I　have　had　no　really　horrible
impressions　at　all。　　That　side　of　the　business　has；　I　think；　been
overwritten。　　The　thing　that　haunts　me　most　is　the　impression　of
a　prevalent　relapse　into　extreme　untidiness；　of　a　universal
discomfort；　of　fields；　and　of　ruined　houses　treated
disregardfully。。。。　　But　that　is　not　what　concerns　us　now　in　this
discussion。　　What　concerns　us　now　is　the　fact　that　this　war　is
producing　spectacular　effects　so　tremendous　and　incidents　so
strange；　so　remarkable；　so　vivid；　that　the　mind　forgets　both
causes　and　consequences　and　simply　sits　down　to　stare。

For　example；　there　is　this　business　of　the　Zeppelin　raids　in
England。　　It　is　a　supremely　silly　business；　it　is　the　most
conclusive　demonstration　of　the　intellectual　inferiority　of　the
German　to　the　Western　European　that　is　should　ever　have　happened。
There　was　the　clearest　/a　priori/　case　against　the　gas…bag。
I　remember　the　discussions　ten　or　twelve　years　ago　in　which　it
was　established　to　the　satisfaction　of　every　reasonable　man　that
ultimately　the　〃heavier　than　air〃　machine　（as　we　called　it　then）
must　fly　better　than　the　gas…bag；　and　still　more　conclusively
that　no　gas…bag　was　conceivable　that　could　hope　to　fight　and
defeat　aeroplanes。　　Nevertheless　the　German；　with　that　dull　faith
of　his　in　mere　〃Will；〃　persisted　along　his　line。　　He　knew
instinctively　that　he　could　not　produce　aviators　to　meet　the
Western　European；　all　his　social　instincts　made　him　cling　to　the
idea　of　a　great　motherly；　almost　sow…like　bag　of　wind　above　him。
At　an　enormous　waste　of　resources　Germany　has　produced　these
futile　monsters；　that　drift　in　the　darkness　over　England
promiscuously　dropping　bombs　on　fields　and　houses。　　They　are　now
meeting　the　fate　that　was　demonstrably　certain　ten　years　ago。　　If
they　found　us　unready　for　them　it　is　merely　that　we　were　unable
to　imagine　so　idiotic　an　enterprise　would　ever　be　seriously
sustained　and　persisted　in。　　We　did　not　believe　in　the
probability　of　Zeppelin　raids　any　more　than　we　believed　that
Germany　would　force　the　world　into　war。　　It　was　a　thing　too　silly
to　be　believed。　　But　they　cameto　their　certain　fate。　　In　the
month　after　I　returned　from　France　and　Italy；　no　less　than　four
of　these　fatuities　were　exploded　and　destroyed　within　thirty
miles　of　my　Essex　home。。。。　　There　in　chosen　phrases　you　have　the
truth　about　these　things。　　But　now　mark　the　perversion　of　thought
due　to　spectacular　effect。

I　find　over　the　Essex　countryside；　which　has　been　for　more　than　a
year　and　a　half　a　highway　for　Zeppelins；　a　new　and　curious
admiration　for　them　that　has　arisen　out　of　these　very　disasters。
Previously　they　were　regarded　with　dislike　and　a　sort　of
distrust；　as　one　might　regard　a　sneaking　neighbour　who　left　his
footsteps　in　one's　garden　at　night。　　But　the　Zeppelins　of
Billericay　and　Potter's　Bar　areheroic　things。　　（The　Cuffley　one
came　down　too　quickly；　and　the　fourth　one　which　came　down　for　its
crew　to　surrender　is　despised。）　I　have　heard　people　describe　the
two　former　with　eyes　shining　with　enthusiasm。

〃First；〃　they　say；　〃you　saw　a　little　round　red　glow　that　spread。
Then　you　saw　the　whole　Zeppelin　glowing。　　Oh；　it　was
/beautiful！/　Then　it　began　to　turn　over　and　come　down；　and
it　flames　and　pieces　began　to　break　away。　　And　then　down　it　came；
leaving　flaming　pieces　all　up　the　sky。　　At　last　it　was　a　pillar
of　fire　eight　thousand　feet　high。。。。　　Everyone　said；　'Ooooo！'　And
then　someone　pointed　out　the　little　aeroplane　lit　up　by　the　flare
such　a　leetle　thing　up　there　in　the　night！　　It　is　the　greatest
thing　I　have　ever　seen。　　Oh！　　the　most　wonderfulmost　wonderful！〃

There　is　a　feeling　that　the　Germans　really　must　after　all　be　a
splendid　people　to　provide　such　magnificent　pyrotechnics。

Some　people　in　London　the　other　day　were　pretending　to　be　shocked
by　an　American　who　boasted　that　he　had　been　in　〃two　/bully/
bombardments；〃　but　he　was　only　saying　what　everyone　feels　more　or
less。　　We　are　at　a　spectacle　thatas　a　spectacleour
grandchildren　will　envy。　　I　understand　now　better　the　story　of
the　man　who　stared　at　the　sparks　raining　up　from　his　own　house　as
it　burnt　in　the　night　and　whispered　〃/Lovely！　　Lovely！/〃

The　spectacular　side　of　the　war　is　really　an　enormous　distraction
from　thought。　　And　against　thought　there　also　fights　the　native
indolence　of　the　human　mind。　　The　human　mind；　it　seems；　was
originally　developed　to　think　about　the　individual；　it　thinks
reluctantly　about　the　species。　　It　takes　refuge　from　that　sort　of
thing　if　it　possibly　can。　　And　so　the　second　great　preventive　of
clear　thinking　is　the　tranquillising　platitude。

The　human　mind　is　an　instrument　very　easily　fatigued。　　Only　a　few
exceptions　go　on　thinking　restlesslyto　the　extreme　exasperation
of　their　neighbours。　　The　normal　mind　craves　for　decisions；　even
wrong　or　false　decisions　rather　than　none。　　It　clutches　at
comforting　falsehoods。　　It　loves　to　be　told；　〃/There/；　don't
you　worry。　　That'll　be　all　right。　　That's　/settled。/〃　This
war　has　come　as　an　almost　overwhelming　challenge　to　mankind。　　To
some　of　us　it　seems　as　it　if　were　the　Sphynx　proffering　the
alternative　of　its　riddle　or　death。　　Yet　the　very　urgency　of　this
challenge　to　think　seems　to　paralyse　the　critical　intelligence　of
very　many　people　altogether。　　They　will　say；　〃This　war　is　going
to　produce　enormous　changes　in　everything。〃　　They　will　then
subside　mentally　with　a　feeling　of　having　covered　the　whole
ground　in　a　thoroughly　safe　manner。　　Or　they　will　adopt　an　air　of
critical　aloofness。　　They　will　say；　〃How　is　it　possible　to
foretell　what　may　happen　in　this　tremendous　sea　of　change？〃　　And
then；　with　an　air　of　superior　modesty；　they　will　go　on　doing
whatever　they　feel　inclined　to　do。　　Many　others；　a　degree　less
simple　in