war and the future-第36部分

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is　a　very　valid　reasoning　for　lengthening　one's　estimate　of　the
duration　of　the　war。

There　can　be　no　doubt　that　the　Western　allies　are　playing　a
winning　game　upon　the　western　front；　and　that　this　is　the　front
of　decision　now。　　It　is　not　in　doubt　that　they　are　beating　the
Germans　and　shoving　them　back。　　The　uncertain　factor　is　the　rate
at　which　they　are　shoving　them　back。　　If　they　can　presently　get
to　so　rapid　an　advance　as　to　bring　the　average　rate　since　July
1st　up　to　two　or　three　miles　a　day；　then　we　shall　still　see　the
Allies　dictating　terms。　　But　if　the　shove　drags　on　at　its　present
pace　of　less　than　a　mile　and　four　thousand　prisoners　a　week　over
the　limited　Somme　front　only；　if　nothing　is　attempted　elsewhere
to　increase　the　area　of　pressure；　＇*This　was　written　originally
before　the　French　offensive　at　Verdun。＇　then　the　intolerable
stress　and　boredom　of　the　war　will　bring　about　a　peace　long
before　the　Germans　are　decisively　crushed。　　But　the　war；
universally　detested；　may　go　on　into　1918　or　1919。　　Food　riots；
famine；　and　general　disorganisation　will　come　before　1920；　if　it
does。　　The　Allies　have　a　winning　game　before　them；　but　they　seem
unable　to　discover　and　promote　the　military　genius　needed　to
harvest　an　unquestionable　victory。　　In　the　long　run　this　may　not
be　an　unmixed　evil。　　Victory；　complete　and　dramatic；　may　be
bought　too　dearly。　　We　need　not　triumphs　out　of　this　war　but　the
peace　of　the　world。

This　war　is　altogether　unlike　any　previous　war；　and　its　ending；
like　its　development；　will　follow　a　course　of　its　own。　　For　a
time　people's　minds　ran　into　the　old　grooves；　the　Germans　were
going　/nach　Paris/　and　/nach　London/；　Lord　Curzon
filled　our　minds　with　a　pleasant　image　of　the　Bombay　Lancers
riding　down　/Unter　den　Linden。/　　But　the　Versailles
precedent　of　a　council　of　victors　dictating　terms　to　the
vanquished　is　not　now　so　evidently　in　men's　minds。　　The　utmost
the　Allies　talk　upon　now　is　to　say；　〃We　must　end　the　war　on
German　soil。〃　　The　Germans　talk　frankly　of　〃holding　out。〃　　I　have
guessed　that　the　western　offensive　will　be　chiefly　on　German　soil
by　next　June；　it　is　a　mere　guess；　and　I　admit　it　is　quite
conceivable　that　the　〃push〃　may　still　be　grinding　out　its　daily
tale　of　wounded　and　prisoners　in　1918　far　from　that　goal。

None　of　the　combatants　expected　such　a　war　as　this；　and　the
consequence　is　that　the　world　at　large　has　no　idea　how　to　get　out
of　it。　　The　war　may　stay　with　us　like　a　schoolboy　caller；　because
it　does　not　know　how　to　go。　　The　Italians　said　as　much　to　me。
〃Suppose　we　get　to　Innsbruck　and　Laibach　and　Trieste；〃　they　said；
〃it　isn't　an　end！〃　　Lord　Northcliffe；　I　am　told；　came　away　from
Italy　with　the　conviction　that　the　war　would　last　six　years。

There　is　the　clearest　evidence　that　nearly　everyone　is　anxious　to
get　out　of　the　war　now。　　Nobody　at　all；　except　perhaps　a　few
people　who　may　be　called　to　account；　and　a　handful　of　greedy
profit…seekers；　wants　to　keep　it　going。　　Quietly　perhaps　and
unobtrusively；　everyone　I　know　is　now　trying　to　find　the　way　out
of　the　war；　and　I　am　convinced　that　the　same　is　the　case　in
Germany。　　That　is　what　makes　the　Peace…at…any…price　campaign　so
exasperating。　　It　is　like　being　chased　by　clamorous　geese　across
a　common　in　the　direction　in　which　you　want　to　go。　　But　how　are
we　to　get　outwith　any　creditin　such　a　way　as　to　prevent　a
subsequent　collapse　into　another　war　as　frightful？

At　present　three　programmes　are　before　the　world　of　the　way　in
which　the　war　can　be　ended。　　The　first　of　these　assumes　a
complete　predominance　of　our　Allies。　　It　has　been　stated　in
general　terms　by　Mr。　Asquith。　　Evacuation；　reparation；　due
punishment　of　those　responsible　for　the　war；　and　guarantees　that
nothing　of　the　sort　shall　happen　again。　　There　is　as　yet　no
mention　of　the　nature　of　these　guarantees。　　Just　exactly　what　is
to　happen　to　Poland；　Austria；　and　the　Turkish　Empire　does　not
appear　in　this　prospectus。　　The　German　Chancellor　is　equally
elusive。　　The　Kaiser　has　stampeded　the　peace…at…any…price　people
of　Great　Britain　by　proclaiming　that　Germany　wants　peace。　　We
knew　that。　　But　what　sort　of　peace？　　It　would　seem　that　we　are
promised　vaguely　evacuation　and　reparation　on　the　western
frontier；　and　in　addition　there　are　to　be　guaranteesbut　it　is
quite　evident　that　they　are　altogether　different　guarantees　from
Mr。　Asquith'sthat　nothing　of　the　sort　is　ever　to　happen　again。
The　programme　of　the　British　and　their　Allies　seems　to
contemplate　something　like　a　forcible　disarmament　and　military
occupation　of　Belgium；　the　desertion　of　Serbia　and　Russia；　and
the　surrender　to　Germany　of　every　facility　for　a　later　and　more
successful　German　offensive　in　the　west。　　But　it　is　clear　that　on
these　terms　as　stated　the　war　must　go　on　to　the　definite　defeat
of　one　side　or　the　other；　or　a　European　chaos。　　They　are
irreconcilable　sets　of　terms。

Yet　it　is　hard　to　say　how　they　can　be　modified　on　either　side；　if
the　war　is　to　be　decided　only　between　the　belligerents　and　by
standards　of　national　interest　only；　without　reference　to　any
other　considerations。　　Our　Allies　would　be　insane　to　leave　the
Hohenzollern　at　the　end　of　the　war　with　a　knife　in　his　hand；
after　the　display　he　has　made　of　his　quality。　　To　surrender　his
knife　means　for　the　Hohenzollern　the　abandonment　of　his　dreams；
the　repudiation　of　the　entire　education　and　training　of　Germany
for　half　a　century。　　When　we　realise　the　fatality　of　this
antagonism；　we　realise　how　it　is　that；　in　this　present
anticipation　of　hell；　the　weary；　wasted　and　tormented　nations
must　still　sustain　their　monstrous　dreary　struggle。　　And　that　is
why　this　thought　that　possible　there　may　be　a　side　way　out；　a
sort　of　turning　over　of　the　present　endlessly　hopeless　game　into
a　new　and　different　and　manageable　game　through　the　introduction
of　some　external　factor；　creeps　and　spreads　as　I　find　it　creeping
and　spreading。

That　is　what　the　finer　intelligences　of　America　are　beginning　to
realise；　and　why　men　in　Europe　continually　turn　their　eyes　to
America；　with　a　surmise；　with　a　doubt。

A　point　of　departure　for　very　much　thinking　in　this　matter　is　the
recent　speech　of　President　Wilson　that　heralded　the　present
discussion。　　All　Europe　was　impressed　by　the　truth；　and　by
President　Wilson's　recognition　of　the　truth；　that　from　any　other
great　war　after　this　America　will　be　unable　to　abstain。　　Can
America　come　into　this　dispute　at　the　end　to　insist　upon
something　better　than　a　new　diplomatic　patchwork；　and　so　obviate
the　later　completer　Armageddon？　　Is　there；　above　the　claims　and
passions　of　Germany；　France；　Britain；　and　the　rest　of　them；　a
conceivable　right　thing　to　do　for　all　mankind；　that　it　might　also
be　in　the　interest　of　America　to　support？　　Is　there　a　Third　Party
solution；　so　to　speak；　which　may　possibly　be　the　way　out　from
this　war？

And　further　I　would　go　on　to　ask；　is　not　this　present　exchange　of
Notes；　appealing　to　the　common　sense　of　the　world；　really　the
beginning；　and　the　proper　beginning；　of　the　unprecedented　Peace
Negotiations　to　end　this　unprecedented　war？　　And；　I　submit；　the
longer　this　open　discussion　goes　on　before　the　doors　close　upon
the　secret　peace　congress　the　better　for　mankind。


2

Let　me　sketch　out　here　what　I　conceive　to　be　the　essentials　of　a
world　settlement。　　Some　of　the　items　are　the　mere　commonplaces　of
everyone　who　discusses　this　question；　some　are　less　frequently
insisted　upon。　　I　have　been　joining　up　one　thing　to　another；
suggestions　I　have　heard　from　this　man　and　that；　and　I　believe
that　it　is　really　possible　to　state　a　solution　that　will　be
acceptable　to　the　bulk　of　reasonable　men　all　about　the　world。
Directly　we　put　the　panic…massacres　of　Dinant　and　Louvain；　the
crime　of　the　/Lusitania/　and　so　on　into　the　category　of
symptoms　rather　than　essentials；　outrages　that　call　for　special
punishments　and　reparations；　but　that　do　not　enter　further　into
the　ultimate　settlement；　we　can　begin　to　conceive　a　possible
world　treaty。　　Let　me　state　the　broad　outlines　of　this
pacification。　　The　outlines　depend　one　upon　the　other；　each　is　a
condition　of　the　other。　　It　is　upon　these　lines　that　the
thoughtful；　as　distinguished　from　the　merely　the　combative
people；　seem　to　be　drifting　everywhere。

In　the　first　place；　it　is　agreed　that　there　would　have　to　be　an
identical　treaty　between　all　the　great　powers　of　the　world
binding　them　to　certain　things。　　It　would　have　to　provide：…


That　the　few　great　industrial　states　capable　of　producing　modern
war　equipment　should　take　over　and　control　completely　the
manufacture　of　all　munitions　of　war　in　the　world。　　And　that　they
should　absolutely　close　the　supply　of　such　material　to　all　the
other　states　in　the　world。　　This　is　a　far　easier　task　than　many
people　suppose。　　War　has　now　been　so　developed　on　its　mechanical
side　that　the　question　of　its　continuance　or　abolition　rests　now
entirely　upon　four　or　five　great　powers。

Next　comes　the　League　of　Peace　idea；　that　there　should　be　an
International　Tribunal　for　the　discussion　and　settlement　of
international　disputes。　　That　the　dominating　powers　should
maintain　land　and　sea　forces　only　up　to　a　limit　agreed　upon　and
for　internal　police　use　onl